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福能股份:2024年三季报点评:Q3业绩下滑,在建项目贡献新增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed a decline in revenue and net profit, with Q3 revenue at 3.82 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year and 10.16% quarter-on-quarter. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 585 million yuan, down 16.60% year-on-year and 11.93% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Despite the short-term performance pressure due to coal power unit maintenance and weak wind conditions, the company has a robust pipeline of energy projects that ensure high certainty in installed capacity in the long term [1]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.87 billion yuan, 3.19 billion yuan, and 3.26 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.08, 1.20, and 1.22 yuan [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 10.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.22%, and a net profit of 1.773 billion yuan, up 8.38% year-on-year [1]. - Q3 electricity generation was 6.464 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.51% year-on-year, while heat supply increased by 3.09% to 2.5344 million tons [1]. - The company has significant ongoing projects, including the East Bridge (Quanhui) cogeneration project with an estimated investment of over 6.9 billion yuan, expected to generate 6.204 billion kWh annually [1]. Project Pipeline and Future Outlook - The company has a rich portfolio of offshore wind and pumped storage projects, with the Changle offshore wind project approved this year, involving a total investment of 6.588 billion yuan and a planned capacity of 656,000 kW [1]. - The company is actively pursuing the Jinjiang gas power phase II project, which is expected to enhance profitability in gas power generation [1]. - The report highlights that the company’s long-term growth prospects remain strong due to its extensive project reserves and the expected increase in installed capacity [1].