华凯易佰2024年三季报点评：Q3经营波动，期待旺季改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [5][19]. Core Views - Q3 performance was negatively impacted by new platform expenses and equity incentive costs, but there are expectations for improvement in Q4 due to the holiday season [1]. - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 6.12 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 189 million yuan, a decrease of 36.7% [1]. - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 has been revised down to 0.84, 1.08, and 1.32 yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 3%, 28%, and 22% [1]. - The target price has been adjusted to 15.12 yuan based on a PE ratio of 18 times for 2024 [1][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 4.417 billion yuan, projected to increase to 6.518 billion yuan in 2023, and further to 9.034 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting growth rates of 112.9%, 47.6%, and 38.6% respectively [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 217 million yuan, expected to rise to 332 million yuan in 2023, and 341 million yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 348.3%, 53.1%, and 2.7% respectively [2]. - The company’s PE ratio for 2023 is 14.89, with a projected PE of 14.51 for 2024 [2][11]. Operational Insights - Q3 revenue was 2.6 billion yuan, a 47.7% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped to 55 million yuan, a 40% decline [1]. - The company has integrated Tongtuo Technology since July, which contributed approximately 677 million yuan in revenue for Q3, and is expected to improve further in Q4 [1]. - The company is actively expanding into new platforms such as Temu, TikTok, and Walmart, with Q3 revenues from these platforms reaching approximately 0.92 billion, 1.09 billion, and 1.01 billion yuan respectively [1]. Market Position - The company is recognized as one of the leading players in the domestic cross-border e-commerce sector, with comparable companies including Saiwei Times, Zhiyou Technology, Anker Innovation, and Jihong Co., Ltd [12].