Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Xinjufeng (301296 SZ) [5][7] Core Views - Xinjufeng's revenue returned to growth in Q3 2024, with a 15 31% YoY increase to 426 million yuan, driven by customer stockpiling due to favorable policies [3] - The company's profitability remained stable, with Q3 2024 gross margin and net margin at 23 24% and 9 10% respectively, up 0 29pct and 0 35pct YoY [4] - Xinjufeng is rapidly expanding its capacity, reaching 28 billion packages (an increase of 10 billion packages), and has completed the acquisition of Fenmei, further enhancing its production capabilities [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 180 million, 200 million, and 230 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PEs of 21X, 19X, and 17X [5][6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Xinjufeng achieved operating revenue/net profit attributable to the parent company/non-GAAP net profit of 426/39/36 million yuan, up 15 31%/19 91%/17 35% YoY [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's operating revenue/net profit attributable to the parent company/non-GAAP net profit were 1 249/125/112 million yuan, up 0 98%/11 91%/3 37% YoY [3] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 309 million yuan, up 48% YoY, mainly due to reduced raw material purchases and lower raw material prices [4] Industry and Market Position - Xinjufeng is leveraging its partnership with Yili to increase its share among major clients, which is expected to improve capacity utilization and profitability [5] - The company is accelerating industry integration, having acquired Fenmei, which enhances its production capacity and extends its capabilities to upstream filling machine production [5] - Xinjufeng is positioned to further increase its market share through both internal capacity expansion and external industry consolidation [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1 740 million yuan in 2024E to 2 104 million yuan in 2026E, with growth rates of 0 2%, 10 0%, and 10 0% respectively [6][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 184 million yuan in 2024E to 225 million yuan in 2026E, with growth rates of 8 4%, 8 9%, and 12 1% respectively [6][8] - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from 0 44 yuan in 2024E to 0 54 yuan in 2026E [6][8]
新巨丰：2024年三季报点评：收入重回增长区间，行业并购有望打造国产“利乐”