FAW Jiefang(000800) 东吴证券·2024-10-30 21:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in Q3 2024 performance, with total revenue of 9.53 billion yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year and 42.7% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 115 million yuan, compared to profits of 310 million yuan in Q2 2024 and 11 million yuan in Q3 2023 [2] - Heavy-duty truck sales decreased in line with industry trends, with a total of 43,000 units sold in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 24.68% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.9%. The average selling price (ASP) for heavy-duty trucks was estimated at 223,000 yuan, down 31.5% year-on-year and 23.9% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by a decrease in the proportion of high-value natural gas trucks and intense industry competition [2][4] - The company's gross margin improved slightly to 7.2% in Q3 2024, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase, indicating initial success in cost reduction efforts. However, the expense ratio rose to 12.7%, driven by a significant drop in revenue [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 9.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 42.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 115 million yuan, with a significant drop in both revenue and gross profit [2][4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates revised down to 724 million yuan for 2024, 1.599 billion yuan for 2025, and 2.414 billion yuan for 2026. Corresponding EPS estimates are 0.16 yuan, 0.35 yuan, and 0.52 yuan, with P/E ratios of 49.4, 22.35, and 14.8 respectively [5] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from cost control measures and potential recovery in the industry. The establishment of an international trade company is anticipated to contribute positively to future profits through export business [4] - The company has a notable presence in the new energy sector, with a market share of 14.7% in electric heavy-duty trucks, and plans to increase investment in this area following a successful capital increase [4]