YINGJIA DISTILLERY(603198) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-30 21:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance in the market [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth trend, with a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving revenues of 55.13 billion and a net profit of 20.06 billion, representing growth rates of +13.81% and +20.19% respectively [1]. - The report highlights a structural upgrade trend driven by specific product lines, although growth has slowed down due to intensified competition both within and outside the province [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the resilience of demand in the mainstream price range of 100-300 yuan for white liquor, with projections for net profit growth of 18.2% in 2024 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 17.11 billion, with a net profit of 6.25 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of +2.32% and +2.86% respectively [1]. - The gross margin improved to 75.60% in Q3 2024, up by 4.45 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix optimization [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 12.75 billion, showing a significant increase of 22.34% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, the liquor business generated 16.32 billion in revenue, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales increasing by 7.12% to 12.96 billion, while ordinary liquor sales decreased by 9.16% to 3.36 billion [1]. - Revenue from the domestic market reached 11.16 billion, growing by 6.85%, while revenue from the external market declined by 3.62% to 5.16 billion [1]. - The company’s direct sales and wholesale channels reported revenues of 1.01 billion and 15.31 billion respectively, with growth rates of 11.87% and 2.78% [1]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 27.03 billion, 29.92 billion, and 33.22 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with expected growth rates of 18.2%, 10.7%, and 11.0% respectively [1][4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 18 for 2024, 16 for 2025, and 15 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [1][4].