Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China P&C Insurance (02328 HK) with a target price of HKD 15 2 [1] Core Views - China P&C Insurance achieved insurance service revenue of RMB 364 306 billion in 2024Q1-3, a year-on-year increase of 5 3% Net profit reached RMB 26 750 billion, up 38 0% year-on-year, close to the upper limit of the previous performance forecast [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for the first three quarters was 98 2%, up 0 3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to frequent natural disasters such as typhoons [1] - The total investment yield for the first three quarters was 4 4% (not annualized), an increase of 1 7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the recovery of the equity market [1] - The company's premium growth accelerated, with motor insurance, health insurance, and liability insurance showing significant growth [1] Business Performance - In 2024Q1-3, the company's original premium income reached RMB 428 330 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4 6% Motor insurance contributed 49 8% of the original premium income, with a year-on-year growth of 3 2% [1] - Non-motor insurance premium income increased by 5 9% year-on-year, with health insurance and liability insurance growing by 8 0% and 11 8% respectively [1] - The COR for motor insurance was 96 8%, within the target range of 97%, while the COR for non-motor insurance was 100 5%, mainly affected by natural disasters [1] Investment Performance - The company's investment income significantly improved, with a total investment yield of 4 4% in 2024Q1-3, up 1 7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The recovery of the equity market, especially after the "924" market rally, contributed to the increase in investment income [1] - The company's net profit growth was close to the upper limit of the forecast, driven by investment income [1] Financial Forecast - The report revised the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 1 51/1 59/1 70, up from the previous forecast of RMB 1 37/1 54/1 70 [1] - The target PB ratio for 2025 is set at 1 1x, corresponding to a target price of HKD 15 2 [1] Market Performance - The current price of China P&C Insurance is HKD 12 08, with a total market capitalization of HKD 268 7 billion and a circulating market capitalization of HKD 83 3 billion [3] - The company's 12-month high/low price range is HKD 14 04/8 08 [3]
中国财险：灾害频发带来COR上行，投资收益显著提高