GoodWe Technologies (688390) 东吴证券·2024-10-30 22:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows an increase in the proportion of energy storage shipments, with profitability gradually recovering [3] - The company experienced a revenue of 4.94 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.1 billion yuan, down 99% year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in shipments and profitability due to ongoing expansion into emerging markets and potential demand recovery in Europe following interest rate cuts [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company sold approximately 160,000 grid-connected inverters, contributing about 5-6 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 25% [3] - Energy storage inverter sales reached around 20,000 units, contributing about 2 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of approximately 45% [3] - The company expects to ship 600,000-650,000 grid-connected inverters and 70,000-80,000 energy storage inverters in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 18% and a decline of 52%, respectively [3] - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 7.39 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase from 7.35 billion yuan in 2023 [1][10] Cost and Expense Management - The company reported a total expense of 1.04 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, with an expense ratio of 21% [4] - In Q3 2024, total expenses were 350 million yuan, with a slight increase of 3.4% quarter-on-quarter [4] Profitability Forecast - The report revises the profit forecast for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 190 million yuan, 610 million yuan, and 870 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 78% in 2024 [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.79 yuan, significantly lower than 3.51 yuan in 2023 [1][10]