Senior(300568) 东吴证券·2024-10-30 22:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - 24Q3 performance met expectations with revenue of 2.61 billion yuan, up 17.9% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 350 million yuan, down 47.7% YoY [2] - Gross margin for 24Q1-Q3 was 30.2%, down 16.4 percentage points YoY, and net profit margin was 13.4%, down 16.8 percentage points YoY [2] - 24Q3 revenue was 950 million yuan, up 11.5% YoY and 1.4% QoQ, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 110 million yuan, down 62.8% YoY and 20.6% QoQ [2] - Gross margin for 24Q3 was 28%, down 19.9 percentage points YoY and 0.2 percentage points QoQ, while net profit margin was 11.3%, down 22.5 percentage points YoY and 3.1 percentage points QoQ [2] - Shipments in 24Q3 increased by 60% YoY, with 25% to 30% growth expected in 2025 [2] - 24Q1-Q3 shipments are estimated at nearly 2.8 billion square meters, with 24Q3 shipments at approximately 1.15 billion square meters, up 15% QoQ [2] - Wet-process shipments accounted for over 50% in 24Q3, with full-year 2024 shipments expected to reach around 4 billion square meters, up nearly 60% YoY [2] - In 2025, four new wet-process lines in Foshan are expected to add approximately 1.1 billion square meters of capacity, with shipments projected to grow 25% to 30% to over 5 billion square meters [2] Financial Performance - 24Q3 average price was 1.06 yuan per square meter (including tax), down approximately 10% QoQ [3] - Non-GAAP net profit per square meter in 24Q3 was 0.08 yuan, flat QoQ, with dry-process break-even and flat QoQ [3] - Full-year 2024 net profit per square meter is expected to be 0.1 yuan [3] - Wet-process diaphragm price pressure continues, but cost reductions through improved yield and equipment efficiency are expected to partially offset the impact [3] - 24Q1-Q3 operating expenses were 460 million yuan, up 17.5% YoY, with an expense ratio of 17.6%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY [3] - 24Q3 operating expenses were 150 million yuan, up 18.4% YoY and down 7.5% QoQ, with an expense ratio of 16.1%, up 0.9 percentage points YoY and down 1.5 percentage points QoQ [3] - 24Q1-Q3 operating cash flow was 330 million yuan, down 63.4% YoY, with 24Q3 operating cash flow at 100 million yuan, up 83.3% YoY and 4.2% QoQ [3] - Inventory at the end of 24Q3 was 390 million yuan, down 14.2% from the end of Q2 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is revised down to 460 million yuan, 570 million yuan, and 810 million yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 576 million yuan, 703 million yuan, and 930 million yuan [4] - YoY growth for 2024-2026 is expected to be -20%, +23%, and +42%, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31x, 25x, and 17x [4] - The company's profit is expected to have bottomed out, with significant long-term growth potential [4] Market Data - Closing price: 10.54 yuan [5] - 52-week low/high: 6.73 yuan / 16.00 yuan [5] - P/B ratio: 1.44x [5] - Market cap of tradable A shares: 12.79 billion yuan [5] - Total market cap: 14.15 billion yuan [5] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue: 3.585 billion yuan, up 18.99% YoY [9] - 2025E revenue: 4.33 billion yuan, up 20.76% YoY [9] - 2026E revenue: 5.348 billion yuan, up 23.53% YoY [9] - 2024E net profit attributable to the parent company: 463 million yuan, down 19.62% YoY [9] - 2025E net profit attributable to the parent company: 572 million yuan, up 23.43% YoY [9] - 2026E net profit attributable to the parent company: 813 million yuan, up 42.26% YoY [9] - 2024E EPS: 0.34 yuan [9] - 2025E EPS: 0.43 yuan [9] - 2026E EPS: 0.61 yuan [9] Cash Flow and Key Financial Ratios - 2024E operating cash flow: 1.251 billion yuan [10] - 2025E operating cash flow: 1.936 billion yuan [10] - 2026E operating cash flow: 2.151 billion yuan [10] - 2024E ROE: 4.55% [10] - 2025E ROE: 5.34% [10] - 2026E ROE: 7.11% [10] - 2024E P/E ratio: 30.56x [10] - 2025E P/E ratio: 24.76x [10] - 2026E P/E ratio: 17.40x [10]