中国银河证券|CGS 拥抱固态浪潮，积极开拓新曲线 星源材质（300568.SH）首次覆盖报告 分析师：曾韬、段尚昌 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入/百万元 | 3541.11 | 4451.79 | 5371.90 | 6788.91 | | 同比 | 17.52% | 25.72% | 20.67% | 26.38% | | 归母净利润/百万元 | 363.83 | 428.39 | 542.75 | 645.60 | | 同比 | -36.87% | 17.74% | 26.70% | 18.95% | | EPS/元 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.48 | | PE | 45.18 | 38.37 | 30.28 | 25.46 | 资料来源:Wind、中国银河证券研究院 星源材质(300568.SZ) | 首次评级 | | - ...

中国银河证券|CGS 拥抱固态浪潮，积极开拓新曲线 星源材质（300568.SH）首次覆盖报告 分析师：曾韬、段尚昌 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 公司深度报告 · 电力设备及新能源行业 拥抱固态浪潮,积极开拓新曲线 星源材质（300568.SZ）首次覆盖报告 2025 年 7 月 21 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入/百万元 | 3541.11 | 4451.79 | 5371.90 | 6788.91 | | 同比 | 17.52% | 25.72% | 20.67% | 26.38% | | 归母净利润/百万元 | 363.83 | 428.39 | 542.75 | 645.60 | | 同比 | -36.87% | 17.74% | 26.70% | 18.95% | | EPS/元 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.48 | | PE | 45.18 | ...

星源材质 摘要： 隔膜国产化龙头，积极推进全球化战略。公司20余年深耕隔膜行业，是我国第一家同时拥有干、湿法制备 技术并向海外出口的企业。2024年公司隔膜出货市占率17.6%，连续5年位居国内第二。公司管理层行业 经验丰富，战略能力强，积极开展全球化布局，瑞典一期已投产，马来西亚20亿平产能预计于2025年中期 投产，到2027年总产能将达160亿平方米。公司先后斩获三星、大众等多个隔膜大单，海外市场高盈利特 性支撑未来业绩及盈利能力。 中国银河（601881）证券股份有限公司曾韬,段尚昌近期对星源材质（300568）进行研究并发布了研究报 告《首次覆盖报告：拥抱固态浪潮，积极开拓新曲线》，首次覆盖星源材质给予买入评级，目标价14.58 元。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧，隔膜价格持续下行的风险、固态电池技术路线变化的风险、新增投资领域发展 不及预期的风险等。 最新盈利预测明细如下： | 报告日期 | 机构简称 研究员 | | 近三年业绩 | 研报数 覆盖时长 | | 2025预测 | 2026预测 | 2027预测 | 目标价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Xingyuan Material Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xingyuan Material") has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, facing challenges of declining profit margins and net profits despite revenue growth due to intensified industry competition and price wars [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Xingyuan Material's revenue has shown growth over the past three years, with figures of 2.867 billion, 2.982 billion, and 3.506 billion from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.59% [2]. - However, the company's gross margin has decreased significantly, from 44.82% in 2022 to 28.07% in 2024, a decline of 15.21 percentage points [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 0.881 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.79%, but the gross margin fell from 36.1% to 23.6%, a decrease of 12.5 percentage points, and net profit dropped by 52% [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The lithium-ion battery separator industry is experiencing severe price competition, with average selling prices for dry, wet, and coated separators declining by 38.6%, 23.6%, and 39.2% respectively in 2024 [4]. - The industry is characterized by a "prisoner's dilemma" where companies engage in bottom-tier competition, sacrificing profits to maintain market share, exacerbated by subsidies and low financing conditions [4]. - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee has called for the regulation of low-price disorderly competition, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, which may help stabilize pricing signals [5]. Group 3: Future Plans - Xingyuan Material plans to raise 6.3 billion HKD through its IPO, with investments allocated for overseas expansion, including approximately 5.462 billion HKD for a production base in Malaysia and 0.632 billion HKD for a base in the United States [3]. - The Singapore operations and R&D center is set to receive an investment of about 0.21 billion HKD, expected to commence in early 2026 and complete by mid-2028 [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continued to show rapid growth year-on-year, with production reaching 1.268 million units and sales at 1.329 million units, representing year-on-year growth of 26.4% and 26.7% respectively [3]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in June was 45.8%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, while the cumulative penetration rate for the first half of the year was 44.3% [3]. - The global power battery installation volume from January to May 2025 was 401.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, with the top five companies holding a combined market share of 73.9% [3]. - In June 2025, the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 47.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.7%, accounting for 81.5% of the total installation volume [3]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Sales - In June 2025, NEV sales reached 1.329 million units, with pure electric vehicle sales at 859,000 units (up 40.4% year-on-year) and plug-in hybrid sales at 470,000 units (up 7.8% year-on-year) [3]. - Cumulatively, from January to June 2025, NEV production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively [3]. Battery Installation Volume - The total power battery installation volume in June 2025 was 58.2 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [3]. - Cumulatively, from January to June 2025, the total installation volume was 299.6 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.3% [3]. Export Data - In June 2025, power battery exports reached 15.8 GWh, accounting for 65% of total exports, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [3]. - Cumulatively, from January to June 2025, power battery exports totaled 81.6 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.5% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the battery and materials sectors that show fundamental improvements, particularly those with technological and capacity advantages in solid-state electrolytes and new types of electrodes [3]. - Key investment targets include CATL, EVE Energy, Keda Technology, and others [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the solid-state battery equipment sector, indicating an expectation of significant growth in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry has achieved a milestone with the delivery of full solid-state production lines by Li Yuanheng, marking a rapid development in China's solid-state battery production capacity [7]. - The electric power equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 2.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.86 percentage points [8]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the electric vehicle sector, driven by the end of inventory reduction and anticipated growth in both European and domestic markets [4]. Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Progress - The first engineering samples from a GWh-level solid-state battery production line developed by Anhui Anwa New Energy have successfully rolled off the production line, with a design capacity of 1.25 GWh [7]. - The number of GWh-level solid-state battery production lines in China is expected to increase to seven, with over 30 pilot lines in development [7]. Market Performance Review - The electric new energy sector ranked 10th among 30 industry sectors, with a 2.68% increase, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.82% during the same period [8]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included solar energy (7.95%), fuel cells (2.99%), and distribution equipment (2.58%) [8]. New Energy Vehicle Industry Tracking - Lithium battery supply chain prices showed mixed trends, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.26% to 63,400 CNY/ton, while nickel sulfate decreased by 2.11% [29]. - Key announcements from listed companies included performance forecasts and stock reduction disclosures, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [41]. Valuation Situation - As of July 11, 2025, the electric new energy sector's valuation stood at 62x, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 13x, with specific segments like electric motors and energy storage showing even higher valuations [19]. - Notable companies in the sector include CATL, with a market cap of 124.91 billion CNY and a projected PE ratio of 22.8x for 2023 [28].

Group 1 - The report highlights a steady increase in domestic electrification rates and a strong recovery in European sales, with global sales expected to grow by 21% in 2025 and maintain over 15% growth in 2026 [2][3] - In 2025, domestic electric vehicle sales are projected to reach 5.61 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with an annual growth forecast of 25% [2][5] - The report anticipates a robust demand for lithium batteries, with a revised growth estimate of over 30% in 2025 and nearly 20% in 2026, driven by strong energy storage policies and market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that the profitability of the industry has begun to recover slightly, with leading companies starting to expand production in an orderly manner, while smaller firms continue to exit the market [2][3] - The report notes a significant disparity in profitability across different segments of the supply chain, with leading battery manufacturers maintaining high profit levels compared to second-tier manufacturers [2][3] - The solid-state battery technology is highlighted as a key area of focus, with advancements expected in sulfide-based materials and core equipment, indicating a rapid acceleration in industrialization [2][3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations emphasize focusing on leading lithium battery companies and those accelerating the industrialization of solid-state technologies, with specific companies identified for potential investment [2][3] - The report suggests that the lithium carbonate price has reached a bottom, making it favorable to invest in companies with quality resources [2][3] - The report identifies several companies in the solid-state battery sector that are expected to benefit from technological advancements and market demand [2][3]

Core Insights - The global lithium-ion battery industry is experiencing rapid growth, with shipments expected to increase from 323.2 GWh in 2020 to 1519.6 GWh by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47.3% [1] - The demand for lithium-ion batteries is driving the expansion of the lithium-ion battery separator market, leading to new financing needs for manufacturers [1] - Shenzhen Xinyuan Material Technology Co., Ltd. (Xinyuan Material) has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with plans to use the funds for overseas capacity expansion, R&D, debt repayment, strategic investments, and working capital [1] Company Overview - Xinyuan Material, established in 2003, has become a leading manufacturer of lithium-ion battery separators, being the first to achieve bulk exports and one of the few companies with dry, wet, and coated separator production technologies [2] - The company’s product lines include dry separators, wet separators, and coated separators, each with specific applications and advantages [3] Financial Performance - Xinyuan Material's revenue for the fiscal years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first quarter of 2025 was approximately 2.867 billion, 2.982 billion, 3.506 billion, and 881 million RMB respectively, while net profits showed a declining trend [8] - The gross margin for the company's separator products decreased from 44.8% in 2022 to 28.1% in 2024, with a further drop to 23.6% in Q1 2025 [8] - The company’s asset-liability ratio increased from 37.36% in 2022 to 56.92% in 2024, indicating rising financial pressure [10] Market Position - Xinyuan Material's global market share in the separator industry increased from 11.0% in 2020 to 14.4% in 2024, reflecting its growth alongside the overall market [4] - The global battery separator market is projected to grow from 6.4 billion square meters in 2020 to 27.7 billion square meters by 2024, with a CAGR of 44.5% [4] Capacity Expansion and R&D - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with a design capacity of 4.476 billion square meters expected by 2024 and a utilization rate of 90% [12] - Xinyuan Material plans to invest part of the funds raised from its listing into R&D for solid-state battery products and new generation lithium-ion battery separators [16] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its operational quality through a series of strategic plans, including expanding production capabilities and investing in new technologies [12][16] - Xinyuan Material has established production bases in multiple regions, including China, Europe, Southeast Asia, and the United States, to support its global operations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shenzhen Xingyuan Material Technology Co., Ltd., has announced its 2024 annual profit distribution plan, which includes a cash dividend of 0.507566 yuan per 10 shares for all shareholders, based on a total share capital of 1,342,902,078 shares, excluding repurchased shares [1][4]. Summary by Sections Profit Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan was approved at the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting held on May 21, 2025, with a total cash dividend of 66,595,418.90 yuan to be distributed to shareholders [2][3]. - The distribution is based on a total share capital of 1,331,908,378 shares after excluding 10,993,700 shares held in the company's repurchase account [2][3]. Dividend Calculation - The cash dividend per 10 shares is calculated as 0.507566 yuan, which is derived from the total cash dividend amount divided by the adjusted total share capital [4][9]. - The cash dividend for shareholders holding shares through the Hong Kong market and other specific categories will be subject to different tax treatments [4]. Key Dates - The record date for the dividend distribution is set for July 16, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is July 17, 2025 [5]. Distribution Method - Cash dividends will be directly credited to the accounts of A-share shareholders through their respective custodial securities companies on the ex-dividend date [7]. - For GDR investors, dividends will be distributed by Deutsche Bank, with a withholding tax of 10% applied [8]. Adjustments Post Distribution - Following the distribution, adjustments will be made to the repurchase price and vesting price related to the company's stock incentive plans [10].

Group 1: Photovoltaic Silicon Material Industry - The photovoltaic silicon material industry is expected to accelerate capacity consolidation, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the solar industry [1] - By 2027, the industry is projected to enter a stable development phase, with significant advantages in the silicon material segment due to differences in capacity costs and financial strength among companies [1] - Key companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is witnessing continuous advancements, with equipment from Winbond Technology successfully delivered to major domestic clients [2] - Material production is ramping up, with significant capacity in oxide electrolytes and expectations for sulfide electrolytes to achieve ton-level shipments by 2025 [2] - Companies of interest in this sector include Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [2] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Development - The central government is promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power, with a focus on enhancing the marine economy and encouraging private investment [3] - Goldwind Technology has secured over 7.7GW of international orders for 2024, with significant revenue growth reported for its international subsidiary [3] - Key players in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, and Dajin Heavy Industry [3] Group 4: Data Center Investment - Global data center investments are accelerating, with Amazon planning to invest AUD 20 billion (approximately USD 13.1 billion) in Australia and SK Telecom collaborating with Amazon Web Services for a significant data center project in South Korea [4] - The deployment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI systems is underway, indicating a growing demand for AI computing resources [4] - Companies to monitor in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, and others [4] Group 5: Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, with Goldwind Technology rated "Outperform" and projected to have an EPS of 1.28 in 2025 [5] - Jinpan Technology and other companies also received "Outperform" ratings, indicating positive market sentiment [5] Group 6: Industry Performance Overview - The electric power equipment sector outperformed the market in June, with a 6.68% increase compared to a 2.5% rise in the CSI 300 index [13] - The sector's PE ratio at the end of June was 30.3, reflecting a slight recovery in valuations [13] - The report highlights that the electric power equipment industry has shown strong performance across various sub-sectors, including lithium battery materials and wind power [23]