TECON(002100) Huaan Securities·2024-10-30 22:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to the parent company of 566 million yuan for the first nine months of 2024, turning from loss to profit year-on-year [2] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 49.9% by the end of September 2024, down 1.2 percentage points from June [2] - The company achieved a pig output of 2.144 million heads from January to September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and is on track to meet its annual target of 3 million heads [2] - The complete cost of pig farming has been decreasing quarterly, with costs of 15.99 yuan/kg, 15.15 yuan/kg, and 14.28 yuan/kg for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [2] - The company expects to continue reducing costs in Q4 due to improved farming efficiency and disease control [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts revenues of 18.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, followed by increases of 7.5% and 4.8% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 918 million yuan in 2024, 1.279 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.001 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 2.9% in 2023 to 13.2% in 2024, and then to 14.0% in 2025 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.5% in 2024, 14.9% in 2025, and 10.4% in 2026 [5] Key Financial Indicators - The total assets are expected to grow from 167.52 billion yuan in 2023 to 200.66 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - The company’s cash position is projected to increase from 28.22 billion yuan in 2023 to 63.82 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decline from 52.8% in 2023 to 44.6% in 2026 [5]