东鹏饮料：2024年三季报点评：第二曲线加速放量，全国化稳步推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499 SH) [5] Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage achieved strong growth in Q3 2024 with total revenue of 12 558 billion yuan up 45 34% YoY and net profit attributable to parent company of 2 707 billion yuan up 63 53% YoY [3] - The company's second growth curve "Dongpeng Water" accelerated with revenue reaching 1 211 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 up 292 11% YoY [3] - National expansion is progressing steadily with revenue from regions outside Guangdong growing rapidly such as Central China up 57 90% YoY and North China up 59 62% YoY [3] - Gross margin improved significantly to 45 81% in Q3 2024 up 4 29 percentage points YoY driven by cost reductions and economies of scale [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to parent company of 3 260 billion yuan in 2024 up 59 8% YoY [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 4 685 billion yuan up 47 29% YoY with net profit attributable to parent company of 977 million yuan up 78 42% YoY [3] - Core product "Dongpeng Special Drink" maintained steady growth with revenue of 3 652 billion yuan in Q3 2024 up 27 73% YoY [3] - Operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 4 501 billion yuan up from 3 281 billion yuan in 2023 [8] - Net profit margin is expected to increase from 18 11% in 2023 to 21 67% in 2026 [6] Growth Strategy - The company is implementing a multi category strategy and strengthening its brand assets [3] - It is continuously improving the national layout of production and sales networks and enhancing channel penetration [3] - The company is actively developing and reserving other health functional beverages to meet consumer demand [3] Valuation - The current P E ratio is 34X for 2024 and is expected to decrease to 21X by 2026 [4] - The P B ratio is projected to decline from 13 0X in 2024 to 7 0X in 2026 [7] - EV EBITDA ratio is forecasted to decrease from 27 22X in 2024 to 16 34X in 2026 [7]