TFME(002156) 民生证券·2024-10-30 22:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tongfu Microelectronics (002156 SZ) [4] Core Views - Tongfu Microelectronics achieved revenue of 17 081 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7 38% The company turned a profit with net profit attributable to the parent company of 553 million yuan and non-GAAP net profit of 541 million yuan [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue reached 6 001 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0 03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 5% The gross profit margin improved to 14 64%, up 1 93 percentage points year-on-year Net profit attributable to the parent company surged 85 48% year-on-year to 230 million yuan [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 23 779 billion yuan, 28 207 billion yuan, and 32 962 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 744 million yuan, 1 207 billion yuan, and 1 673 billion yuan for the same periods [2] - The report highlights the company's strong position in advanced packaging, particularly benefiting from the growing demand in AI and data center markets, driven by its close partnership with AMD [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate from 6 78% in 2024 to 18 62% in 2025 and 16 86% in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow significantly, with a 338 97% increase in 2024, followed by 62 25% in 2025 and 38 67% in 2026 [5] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve steadily, reaching 15% by 2026, up from 11 67% in 2023 [5] - ROE is expected to rise from 1 22% in 2023 to 9 67% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [5] Business Development and Strategy - Tongfu Microelectronics is advancing its R&D in advanced packaging technologies, particularly in FCBGA chip packaging for high-performance applications in photoelectric communication, consumer electronics, and AI [2] - The company is expanding production capacity through major projects, including new factories in Suzhou and Penang, to meet growing demand for advanced packaging [2] - The company's partnership with AMD remains a key driver, with Tongfu Microelectronics accounting for over 80% of AMD's packaging and testing orders The strong performance of AMD's data center business, particularly the MI300 GPU, is expected to benefit the company [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is projected to decline from 50x in 2024 to 22x in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [5] - PB ratio is expected to decrease from 2 5x in 2024 to 2 2x in 2026, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [5] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to drop from 9 31x in 2024 to 6 40x in 2026, further supporting the investment case [5]