Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (SH:600809) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-30 22:39Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, with a target price of 238.54 CNY [3][5][10]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with product structure recovery and strong profitability, alongside stable cash flow [2][11]. - The industry is entering a destocking phase, which presents opportunities for the company to enhance its competitive advantage and market share [2][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 Q3 reached 8.611 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.35% - Net profit for the same period was 2.94 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.36% [11][12]. - The company expects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 10.36 CNY, 11.66 CNY, and 13.07 CNY respectively, with adjustments made to previous forecasts [3][10]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's net profit margin for Q3 2024 was maintained at 34.14%, indicating strong profitability [12]. - The company reported a 30.77% increase in cash receipts from sales during Q3 2024, outperforming expectations [12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is well-positioned to capture market share due to its large production capacity, strong brand, and solid product lines, particularly in the face of external demand pressures [12][11]. - The report highlights that the company’s product lines, including the Qinghua series and the Glass Fen series, are expected to mitigate the impact of declining consumer spending [12].