CBMT(603099) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-30 23:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changbai Mountain, with a target price raised to 36.87 CNY, reflecting a 36% upside from the current price of 31.36 CNY [4][3]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was slightly below expectations due to a decline in hotel occupancy rates and average spending per customer, alongside rising labor costs. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of the private placement, new projects, and transportation developments [2][3]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards to 1.66 billion CNY (-16%), 2.14 billion CNY (-15%), and 2.71 billion CNY (-14%), respectively. The corresponding EPS estimates are 0.62 CNY, 0.80 CNY, and 1.02 CNY [3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.95 billion CNY, representing a 29% increase year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3% to 1.48 billion CNY [3]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 3.4 billion CNY, up 3.19% year-on-year, while gross profit fell by 5.56% to 1.97 billion CNY, resulting in a gross margin of 57.9%, down 5.36 percentage points [3]. - The report highlights that the increase in costs, particularly in personnel expenses, contributed to a significant decline in profit margins [3]. Market and Industry Context - The report notes that the company is expected to benefit from the upcoming Harbin Asian Winter Games in February 2025 and the anticipated completion of the Shenyang-Baicheng high-speed railway by the end of 2025, which will reduce travel time to Changbai Mountain [3][4]. - The report also mentions the potential for increased customer flow due to local government initiatives, such as ski consumption vouchers, aimed at boosting winter sports participation [3].