百润股份：预调酒增长承压，期待烈酒新品上市

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 being 8.0 billion, 9.9 billion, and 11.8 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -1%, +24%, and +19% [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.386 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 2.88% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 574 million, down 13.67% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights that the pre-mixed beverage segment is under pressure due to weak terminal demand and high base effects, with Q3 revenue for pre-mixed beverages at 671 million, down 6.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and enhancing brand promotion, particularly for its refreshing series, which is expected to recover growth through product iterations [2][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 758 million, a decline of 5.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of 172 million, down 24.01% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 70.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, while the net margin was 22.7%, a decrease of 5.4 percentage points [2]. Business Analysis - The report notes that the refreshing beverage segment is undergoing a brand upgrade, with new product launches and marketing campaigns aimed at enhancing consumer experience [2]. - The food flavoring segment saw a revenue increase of 23.5% year-on-year, attributed to fluctuations in customized demand orders [2]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards by 6.2%, 5.5%, and 4.5% respectively, reflecting the challenges in the main business [2][4]. - The expected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 29x, 23x, and 20x respectively [2].