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牧原股份:周期景气兑现,分红比例上调

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 96.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.64%, and net profit of 10.481 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 668.9% [1] - The company has adjusted its dividend payout ratio, increasing the cash distribution to shareholders from at least 20% to 40% of the distributable profits for the next three years [3] - The report anticipates a decrease in production costs, projecting the cost of raising pigs to fall below 13 yuan/kg by the end of 2024, driven by improved production efficiency and lower feed material costs [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 20.436 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 579.4%, with projected profits for 2025 and 2026 at 24.791 billion yuan and 10.808 billion yuan, respectively [3][4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 3.74 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.7x [4][3] - The financial metrics indicate a recovery from previous losses, with a significant improvement in operational quality and a reduction in losses from the slaughtering business [2][3]