NovelBeam Technology(688677) 东吴证券·2024-10-31 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to downstream inventory destocking, but the destocking process is nearing its end [2] - The company's Q3 revenue remains under pressure, with a single-quarter revenue of 98 million yuan (-9.39% YoY) and net profit of 27 million yuan (-7.00% YoY) [2] - The company is actively expanding overseas, with its Thailand subsidiary expected to achieve mass production next year, enhancing its competitiveness [2] - The company's main business is expected to recover steadily next year, supported by stable cooperation with a major US customer and the domestic equipment replacement policy [3] - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 140/204/250 million yuan, with corresponding PE valuations of 31/21/17 times [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 319 million yuan (-15.30% YoY), with net profit of 97 million yuan (-17.60% YoY) [2] - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 395.41 million yuan (-15.98% YoY), with net profit of 139.62 million yuan (-4.18% YoY) [1] - The company's revenue for 2025 is expected to be 523.29 million yuan (+32.34% YoY), with net profit of 203.63 million yuan (+45.85% YoY) [1] - The company's revenue for 2026 is expected to be 631.96 million yuan (+20.77% YoY), with net profit of 250.13 million yuan (+22.83% YoY) [1] Business Segments - The company's medical endoscope products and light source modules saw a decline in revenue due to downstream inventory destocking, while endoscope maintenance and complete equipment sales showed significant growth [2] - The company sold approximately 150 sets of complete equipment in the first three quarters of 2024, with full-year sales expected to grow steadily [2] Overseas Expansion - The company's Thailand factory has obtained BUI and production licenses, with production lines for new endoscope products and light source modules established [2] - The company plans to apply for customer approval in November and December, aiming for mass production in the first quarter of next year [2] Valuation and Metrics - The company's current PE ratio is 31.19 times, with expected PE ratios of 21.38 and 17.41 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's current PB ratio is 3.40 times, with expected PB ratios of 3.14, 2.74, and 2.37 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [10] - The company's ROE for 2024 is expected to be 10.08%, increasing to 12.82% and 13.61% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10] Market Data - The company's closing price is 36.10 yuan, with a one-year low/high of 25.48/61.99 yuan [5] - The company's market capitalization is 4,354.17 million yuan, with a circulating A-share market capitalization of 4,354.17 million yuan [5] Financial Statements - The company's total assets are expected to increase from 1,395 million yuan in 2023 to 1,962 million yuan in 2026 [9] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase from 158 million yuan in 2023 to 331 million yuan in 2026 [10] - The company's capital expenditures are expected to be 92 million yuan in 2024, 92 million yuan in 2025, and 94 million yuan in 2026 [10]