Asymchem(002821) 平安证券·2024-10-31 00:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 20% within the next six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company's core business is experiencing rapid growth, with the small molecule chemical CDMO segment achieving revenue of 1.192 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting an 18.89% increase when excluding the impact of large orders [5][6]. - Emerging businesses are expected to return to growth in Q4 2024, driven by the advancement of certain macromolecule projects into late-stage clinical or commercial supply phases [5]. - The overall revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.443 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.09%, but a 12.23% increase when excluding large orders [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 211 million yuan for Q3 2024, down 59.68%, with a non-recurring net profit of 215 million yuan, down 54.02% [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 46.32%, an increase of 5.64 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to improvements in the small molecule business [6]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 908 million, 1.16 billion, and 1.494 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the impact of last year's high base from large orders [6][8]. Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The projected revenue for 2024 is 6 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.3% year-over-year, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [7]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize at 44.2% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 46.5% by 2026 [12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 5.0% in 2024 but is expected to recover to 7.2% by 2026 [12].