中国神华：何以神华 一个新的思考框架

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is viewed through a new investment framework where individual stock alpha is more significant than industry beta, suggesting that the focus should be on identifying companies worth holding long-term, with China Shenhua being a prime candidate [1][11] - The report emphasizes that dividend rate is more important than dividend yield for non-growth industries, as it reflects the willingness of shareholders to distribute profits, which is crucial for assessing company stability [1][39] - The sensitivity of valuation for non-perpetual assets is highly dependent on duration, with China Shenhua demonstrating superior resilience to demand fluctuations compared to industry averages [6][30] Summary by Sections Overall View of the Coal Sector - The report argues that excessive focus on the long-term positioning of the coal industry is unproductive, as factors like carbon neutrality policies and technological breakthroughs are unpredictable [1][11] - It suggests a Bayesian approach to investment, advocating for diversified exposure to the coal sector [1][11] China Shenhua as a Survivor - China Shenhua is characterized as a low-cost supplier in a homogeneous market, with its integrated operations enhancing its competitive edge [1][13] - The company is expected to be one of the last survivors in a shrinking coal industry, with a longer duration than the industry average [1][13] Financial Transparency and Risk Management - The report highlights that a transparent financial statement can be a source of alpha, and China Shenhua's low debt ratio enhances its risk resilience [1][14] - The company has minimal interest-bearing debt, which provides a safety cushion in uncertain market conditions [1][14] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for China Shenhua from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 596.6 billion, 610.6 billion, and 621.1 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 13 [4][5] - The report notes that while China Shenhua's P/E is higher than comparable companies, its ability to withstand demand fluctuations justifies this premium [4][6]