华新水泥：Q3业绩继续探底，关注后续业绩回暖

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance continues to decline, but there are expectations for a recovery in future earnings [3][4] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached approximately 24.719 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.29%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.26% [1][3] - The revenue growth in Q3 was primarily driven by increased overseas sales, while domestic sales remain under pressure [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 8.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, with a net profit of 408 million yuan, down 40.17% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 24.02%, a decrease of 2.28 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 gross margin was 24.74%, down 5.23 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Conditions - The domestic cement market remains sluggish, with a national cement production of 544 million tons in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.85% [1] - Cement prices in major cities showed mixed trends, with prices in Wuhan, Kunming, and Changsha changing by -22 yuan, +18 yuan, and +42 yuan respectively [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a bottoming out of earnings in Q3, with a reasonable outlook for recovery [4] - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.333 billion yuan, 2.730 billion yuan, and 3.277 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13X, 11X, and 9X [4]