Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, with revenue of 56.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.139 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.17% [4] - The coal business was impacted by the Xinhu Lake mine, but production is expected to recover in the first half of 2025. The company is positioned as a growth stock in coking coal, with potential industry increments from 2024 to 2026 [3][4] Financial Summary - Q3 revenue was 19.47 billion yuan, up 6.45% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.204 billion yuan, down 18.12% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [4] - The average selling price of coal in Q3 was 1,053 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton year-on-year but a decrease of 59 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter. The cost per ton was 541 yuan, which increased year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company produced 5.35 million tons of commercial coal in Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, and sold 3.84 million tons, a decrease of 3% [4] Business Segments - The coking business negatively affected performance, with Q3 production of 950,000 tons, down 40,000 tons year-on-year, and sales of 890,000 tons, down 120,000 tons year-on-year. The average selling price for coking coal was 1,843 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 500 yuan/ton year-on-year [4] - The company officially launched its ethanol production project, contributing to performance growth. In Q3, ethanol production was 148,000 tons, with sales of 147,000 tons and an average selling price of 5,222 yuan/ton, significantly enhancing profitability compared to methanol products [4] Future Outlook - The company has plans to accelerate the construction of various chemical projects, including a 60,000-ton ethanol project that commenced production in the first half of 2024, and additional projects in the pipeline [4] - The company is expected to complete the construction of a 2×660MW ultra-supercritical coal-fired power generation unit by the end of 2025, which will contribute to capacity growth [4]
淮北矿业2024年三季报点评:信湖及焦炭业务影响利润,政策端超预期下焦煤首选