Shede Spirits (600702) 海通证券·2024-10-31 00:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, down 48.4% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth up to 200 million yuan to enhance investor confidence and support stock value recovery [5][6] - The overall demand is under pressure, but online sales showed relative strength, with e-commerce channel revenue increasing by 39.1% year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.189 billion yuan, a decline of 30.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 78 million yuan, down 79.2% year-on-year [5] - The company's gross margin decreased by 10.9 percentage points year-on-year to 63.7% in Q3 2024, continuing the downward trend observed in the first half of the year [6] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.6%, a decrease of 15.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the liquor business in Q3 2024 was 1.050 billion yuan, down 33.3% year-on-year [5] - Sales revenue for mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q3 2024 was 897 million yuan and 153 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 35.7% and 15.0% year-on-year [5] - Sales revenue from wholesale and agency channels decreased by 35.5% to 984 million yuan, while e-commerce channel revenue increased by 39.1% to 66 million yuan [5] Future Outlook - The company expects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.75 yuan, 2.98 yuan, and 3.50 yuan, respectively [7] - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 68.79 yuan and 82.55 yuan based on a PE ratio of 25-30 times for 2024 [7]