Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) Huafu Securities·2024-10-31 01:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.717 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.22%, and a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 28.21% year-on-year [2]. - The company has effectively controlled expenses, leading to continuous improvement in profitability, with a net profit margin of 7.47% for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit over the next three years, with projections of 270 million yuan, 339 million yuan, and 401 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 270%, 26%, and 18% [4][6]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 32.17%, slightly down by 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product mix [4]. - The revenue from frozen baked goods accounted for approximately 58% of total revenue, showing a year-on-year decline of about 7%, while revenue from baking ingredients increased by approximately 30% [3]. - The company’s sales expense ratio decreased to 11.53% for the first three quarters of 2024, down 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost control measures [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.843 billion yuan, 4.478 billion yuan, and 5.014 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 10%, 17%, and 12% [6][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.59 yuan in 2024 to 2.37 yuan in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][15]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency through the establishment of multiple internal control systems and the optimization of its supply chain management [4]. - The second UHT cream factory is set to commence production in Q4 2024, which is expected to support demand during the peak season and future growth in cream products [4].