东鹏饮料：第二曲线爆发，基本面高增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [3][10] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 12.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.34%, and net profit of 2.707 billion yuan, up 63.53% [1] - New product launches, particularly "Dongpeng Water," have performed exceptionally well, contributing to overall sales growth [2] - The company has effectively managed costs, leading to improved profitability metrics, including a gross margin of 45.05% for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 2.53 percentage points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.558 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.707 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.34% and 63.53% respectively [1] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 4.685 billion yuan, a 47.29% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 977 million yuan, up 78.42% [1] Product Performance - The "Dongpeng Special Drink" generated revenue of 10.507 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 31.43% increase, while "Dongpeng Water" and other beverages contributed 1.211 billion yuan and 812 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 292.11% and 145.43% [2] - In Q3 2024, "Dongpeng Special Drink" revenue was 3.652 billion yuan, a 27.73% increase, with "Dongpeng Water" and other beverages achieving 735 million yuan and 281 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 299.58% and 107.04% [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The company has maintained a gross margin of 45.05% for the first three quarters, an increase of 2.53 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin rising to 21.56% [2] - In Q3 2024, the gross margin improved to 45.81%, with a net profit margin of 20.85%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3 and 3.64 percentage points respectively [2] Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 3.203 billion yuan, 4.250 billion yuan, and 5.327 billion yuan for the respective years, translating to P/E ratios of 35, 26, and 21 [2][3]