ECOVACS(SH:603486) Guotou Securities·2024-10-31 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a 12-month target price of 60.00 CNY, corresponding to a PE valuation of 25x for 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.23 billion CNY for the first nine months of 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 2.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 620 million CNY, an increase of 1.9% year-over-year. In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.25 billion CNY, down 4.1% year-over-year, and a net profit of 10 million CNY, down 69.2% year-over-year. The decline in profitability is attributed to the early promotion for Double Eleven and the destocking of slow-moving products overseas. However, with the domestic trade-in subsidies and overseas inventory optimization, the company's operations are expected to improve in the future [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue growth improved slightly compared to Q2, with a 6.3 percentage point increase. The KOVOS brand faced revenue pressure due to new products being in the pre-sale stage in September, with expected revenue boosts in Q4. The Tink brand saw improved revenue growth due to a low base from the previous year. The company anticipates a significant increase in domestic sales in Q4 due to trade-in subsidies [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 was 46.8%, a slight year-over-year increase of 0.9 percentage points but a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from Q2. The decline in gross margin is attributed to the company's efforts to clear slow-moving overseas products and the impact of price reductions on older products during the pre-sale period of new products [2][3]. Cost Structure and Profitability Pressure - The net profit margin for Q3 was 0.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year and down 8.7 percentage points from Q2. The increase in sales expenses is significant due to the pre-sale of multiple new products and the early promotion expenses for Double Eleven. The company expects improved profitability in Q4 due to the delivery of high-margin new products and overseas inventory optimization [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 2.12 CNY, 2.40 CNY, and 2.67 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The revenue forecast for 2024 is 16.19 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.21 billion CNY, indicating a recovery in profitability as the market conditions improve [4][11].