滨江集团：持续深耕杭州，销售排名上升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have declined due to reduced delivery volume and lower gross margins. The gross margin for the first nine months of 2024 was 10.4%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year. However, a significant increase in delivery volume is expected in the fourth quarter, which may lead to a recovery in performance [1]. - The company has experienced a net cash outflow from operations of 1.41 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2024, compared to a net inflow of 27.9 billion yuan in the same period last year. This is attributed to a decline in sales, restrictions on mortgage disbursement due to lower down payment ratios, and a strong land acquisition strategy [1]. - The company ranks 8th in the industry in terms of total sales amount, with a total sales amount of 80.13 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2024, down 34.4% year-on-year, but it has improved its ranking by 3 places compared to the entire year of 2023 [1]. - The company focuses its investments in Hangzhou, acquiring 11 plots of land with a total acquisition amount of 25.1 billion yuan, ranking 4th in the industry for equity acquisition amount [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 40.784 billion yuan, down 12.09% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.633 billion yuan, down 33.94% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 16.583 billion yuan, down 14.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 467 million yuan, down 44.11% year-on-year [1]. - The company's revenue growth rates for the years 2024 to 2026 are projected to be 1.59%, 2.18%, and 3.01%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 4.07%, 24.93%, and 12.46% [2][4]. Market Position - The company has maintained a strong market position, with its sales ranking improving despite a decline in sales volume. The focus on the Hangzhou market is expected to yield positive results in the future [1][2]. Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.4x for 2024, 9.2x for 2025, and 8.1x for 2026, indicating potential for growth [2].