CBC(SH:600132) Huaan Securities·2024-10-31 02:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is waiting for a recovery in dining demand, with revenue and profit figures aligning with market expectations despite a decline in Q3 [1] - The report indicates that the revenue for Q3 was 4.2 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 430 million yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from a recovery in the dining sector in 2025-2026 [1] Revenue Summary - Q3 revenue showed a decline in product structure, with volume down 5.6% and price down 2.4%, influenced by the overall dining market and weather conditions in Chongqing [1] - The revenue breakdown for Q3 by product tier was 236 million yuan for high-end, 160 million yuan for mainstream, and 13 million yuan for economy, reflecting year-on-year changes of -9.2%, -7.6%, and +20% respectively [1] Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin for Q3 decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.2%, primarily due to a 1.1% increase in cost per ton and increased depreciation from the Foshan factory [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 10.2% [1] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 155 billion yuan in 2024, 164 billion yuan in 2025, and 173 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 5.4%, and 5.6% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.418 billion yuan in 2024, 1.550 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.706 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 6.1%, 9.3%, and 10.0% respectively [2]