JA SOLAR(002459) 国金证券·2024-10-31 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company has significantly improved profitability, exceeding market expectations, as the impact of capacity ramp-up has been eliminated [1] - The company is expected to enhance its market share and profitability recovery due to its leading position in TOPCon technology and overseas capacity and channel layout [2] - The company has achieved a notable increase in operating cash flow, indicating a positive trend in financial health [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 543 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.84 billion RMB [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 170 billion RMB, down 11% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit was 3.9 billion RMB, showing a significant recovery from previous losses [1] Operational Analysis - The company has completed the ramp-up of TOPCon battery production, leading to a significant reduction in costs and an improvement in profitability [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 increased by 5.6 percentage points to 8.67%, and the net profit margin turned positive at 2.07% [1] - The company shipped approximately 57 GW of battery components in the first three quarters, with overseas shipments accounting for about 52.40% [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to exceed 100 GW of module capacity by 2024, with N-type battery capacity reaching 57 GW [2] - The company is expanding its overseas production capabilities, including a photovoltaic module base in the United States, which is anticipated to support market share growth and profitability recovery [2] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to -2.8 billion RMB, 46.1 billion RMB, and 54.2 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13 and 11 times for 2025 and 2026 [2]