四川九洲：合同负债高增，低空助力腾飞

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sichuan Jiuzhou [1][16][19] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows significant recovery, with a quarterly revenue of 965 million (up 5.9% year-on-year and up 10.7% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 52 million (down 6.4% year-on-year but up 66.6% quarter-on-quarter) [1][7] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 is 22.4% (down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year), while the net profit margin is 4.4% (down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year). In Q3 2024, the gross margin is 23.7% (down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter) and the net profit margin is 5.4% (down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter) [2][8] - The company's contract liabilities have significantly increased, reaching 95 million by the end of Q3 2024, a 63.73% increase compared to the end of H1 2024, indicating a potential turning point in the business cycle [2][12] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic air traffic management system, benefiting from the development of the low-altitude economy and the growth prospects of smart terminal products and microwave RF [2][16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 2.722 billion (down 3.8% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120 million (down 15.1% year-on-year) [1][7] - The Q3 2024 revenue and net profit figures indicate a recovery trend, with a notable quarter-on-quarter improvement [1][7] Margins and Ratios - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 is 22.4%, while the net profit margin is 4.4%. In Q3 2024, the gross margin is 23.7% and the net profit margin is 5.4% [2][8] - The company maintained stable gross margins despite year-on-year declines [2][8] Contract Liabilities - The increase in contract liabilities to 95 million by the end of Q3 2024 suggests a potential recovery in demand and future revenue growth [2][12] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 199 million, 243 million, and 292 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 70, 57, and 48 [2][16]