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三花智控:基本盘稳健发展,卡位机器人开启成长新曲线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.3 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter revenue was 6.9 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase but a 5% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 790 million yuan, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase and a 9% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is advancing its globalization strategy by considering the issuance of H-shares, with a proposed issuance scale not exceeding 10% of the total share capital post-issuance [1]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 27.7%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 11.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points [2]. - In Q3 2024, the gross profit margin was 28.2%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3 percentage points but a year-on-year decrease of 2.6 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 11.6%, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.5 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2]. Business Segments - The automotive parts and refrigeration sectors are showing stable fundamentals, with the company holding the global market share leader position in several products, including electronic expansion valves and thermal management components for new energy vehicles [3]. - The company is investing in the robotics sector, focusing on electromechanical actuators and establishing a research and production base for robotic components with a total investment of no less than 3.8 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.3 billion yuan, 3.9 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 22, and 18 times [3].