AVIC SAC(600760) 民生证券·2024-10-31 02:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 27.0% year-on-year (YoY) in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 25.3 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.82 billion yuan, down 23.1% YoY [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to the impact of contract signing progress, which affected the timely signing of contracts for established product demand. However, the company’s profitability showed stability, with a gross margin of 12.5% and a net margin of 7.1% for the first three quarters of 2024, both reflecting an increase YoY [2]. - The company is focusing on increasing research and development (R&D) investments, with R&D expenses rising to 600 million yuan, a 9.4% increase YoY. The R&D expense has grown significantly from 288 million yuan in 2020 to 976 million yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 50% [2]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence and has a strong demand certainty in its downstream equipment [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 25.3 billion yuan, with a quarterly breakdown showing revenues of 9.49 billion yuan in Q1 (YoY +3.5%), 12.13 billion yuan in Q2 (YoY -13.2%), and 3.67 billion yuan in Q3 (YoY -68.0%) [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 1.82 billion yuan, with quarterly net profits of 720 million yuan in Q1 (YoY +11.6%), 900 million yuan in Q2 (YoY +6.0%), and 200 million yuan in Q3 (YoY -77.1%) [2]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities improved, with a net cash flow of -5.89 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, compared to -12.43 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. Future Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.775 billion yuan, 4.665 billion yuan, and 5.683 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34x, 28x, and 23x [2][5].