LZLJ(SZ:000568) Ping An Securities·2024-10-31 02:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" and maintained [1] Core Views - The company is actively adjusting its operations to cope with macroeconomic pressures, aiming for stable long-term development [4][6] - Despite short-term performance challenges, the brand foundation of Guojiao 1573 is strong, and there is potential for growth in mid-tier products [6] - The company is implementing a strategic expansion plan in key markets, which supports its long-term growth outlook [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and a net profit of 11.6 billion yuan, up 9.7% [3] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 7.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, while net profit reached 3.6 billion yuan, increasing by 2.6% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 88.1%, with a net profit margin of 48.2%, indicating stable profitability despite a slight decrease in gross margin compared to the previous year [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are as follows: 32.68 billion yuan in 2024, 34.33 billion yuan in 2025, and 35.98 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates decreasing from 8.1% to 4.8% [5][10] - Net profit is expected to reach 14.35 billion yuan in 2024, 15.15 billion yuan in 2025, and 15.92 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates also declining [5][10] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) forecast, with expected values of 30.4% in 2024, 28.5% in 2025, and 26.7% in 2026 [10] Cost Management - The company has effectively controlled its expenses, with a total expense ratio of 14.6% in Q3 2024, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The sales expense ratio has been optimized through refined cost management, contributing to stable profitability [4]