YILI(600887) 平安证券·2024-10-31 02:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [1][7] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 89.039 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.87% to 10.868 billion yuan [2] - The gross margin improved to 34.81%, up 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin reached 12.28%, an increase of 2.63 percentage points [3] - The liquid milk segment continues to face pressure, but the decline is narrowing, while the milk powder and dairy products segment shows growth, particularly in high-value categories like infant nutrition and cheese [3] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenues of 575.24 billion yuan from liquid milk, 213.30 billion yuan from milk powder and dairy products, and 83.44 billion yuan from cold drinks, with respective year-on-year changes of -12.09%, +7.09%, and -19.66% [3] - The company expects revenue to improve gradually as consumer demand recovers, with projected net profits of 11.472 billion yuan, 10.511 billion yuan, and 11.352 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][10] - The report forecasts an EPS of 1.80 yuan for 2024, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 14.7 [7][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its multi-channel strategy to explore consumer opportunities, with direct sales channels experiencing a revenue decline of 18.47% and distribution channels down by 8.44% [3] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 168.3 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 6.366 billion shares [6]