格力电器（000651）：Q3空调内销需求波动，盈利能力提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gree Electric Appliances is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 56.96 CNY for the next six months [4][5]. Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances reported a total revenue of 147.42 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.96 billion CNY, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 47.13 billion CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.82 billion CNY, up 5.5% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability despite revenue pressure [1][2]. - The domestic air conditioning market showed signs of weakness, but there is potential for significant growth in overseas markets such as the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, with external sales expected to continue growing [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 gross margin was reported at 29.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced scale effects from lower revenue and increased raw material costs [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 16.6%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a reduction in sales expense ratio by 4.4 percentage points [3]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 was 7.59 billion CNY, down 13.1% year-on-year, mainly due to decreased revenue and increased accounts receivable [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing "old-for-new" subsidy policies, which are likely to boost domestic air conditioning sales and improve profitability [3]. - Forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.70 CNY, 6.14 CNY, and 6.87 CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is set at 10x, with a corresponding target price of 56.96 CNY based on the current market conditions [4][5]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 256.43 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of about 252.50 billion CNY [5].