Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 adjusted to 400 million, 520 million, and 630 million RMB respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 23, 17, and 14 times [2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.06 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 297 million RMB, down 29.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.51 billion RMB, down 27.7% year-on-year and 14.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 22 million RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 86.3% year-on-year and 78.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to the continuous drop in prices of photovoltaic glass and soda ash, with the overall gross margin in Q3 at 12.6%, down 5.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The report indicates that the industry is approaching an inventory inflection point due to high inventory levels and profitability pressures, leading to production line delays and reductions [1]. - The company’s inventory at the end of Q3 was 1.036 billion RMB, showing a slight decrease of 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating good inventory control amidst increasing competition [1]. - The progress of perovskite industrialization has not met expectations, with the company focusing on overseas markets for TCO business development [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024: 5.06 billion RMB, down 12.8% year-on-year - Net profit for the first three quarters: 297 million RMB, down 29.7% year-on-year - Q3 revenue: 1.51 billion RMB, down 27.7% year-on-year and 14.8% quarter-on-quarter - Q3 net profit: 22 million RMB, down 86.3% year-on-year and 78.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Operational Analysis - Q3 gross margin: 12.6%, down 5.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 7.8 percentage points year-on-year - Photovoltaic glass prices have decreased significantly, with 3.2mm and 2.0mm glass prices down 19.8% and 32.4% respectively since mid-May [1]. - Industry inventory levels are expected to reach an inflection point as production cuts increase [1]. - Company inventory at Q3 end: 1.036 billion RMB, down 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective inventory management [1]. Future Outlook - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026: 400 million, 520 million, and 630 million RMB respectively - Corresponding PE ratios: 23, 17, and 14 times [2]. - The company is focusing on overseas markets for TCO business development due to slower-than-expected domestic perovskite industrialization [1].
金晶科技：玻璃、纯碱短期盈利承压，静待TCO玻璃出货放量