NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(SH:600219) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 03:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of October 30, 2024 [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the increase in alumina prices has significantly boosted the company's performance, and it is expected that the Q4 performance will be even more impressive due to strong alumina prices [3][4]. - The company has achieved a revenue of 8.559 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.777 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.5% for 2024 [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 24.226 billion yuan, which is a 62.94% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company's net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.301 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.01% [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.41, 0.41, and 0.43 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10.1, 10.1, and 9.6 [1][5]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the alumina price has seen a significant increase, with the FOB price for Australian alumina reaching approximately 507 USD/ton in Q3 2024, a 17.0% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 47.5% increase year-on-year [3]. - The average FOB price for Australian alumina in Q4 2024 (as of October 25) is projected to be 643.6 USD/ton, reflecting a substantial increase of 136 USD per ton compared to Q3 [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns by announcing a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for the third quarter, resulting in a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 26.77% for the year [4].