新宝股份：公司信息更新报告：2024Q3外销延续较高景气，内销仍有所承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in external sales while internal sales remain stable. The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability driven by internal sales recovery [5][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 12.69 billion yuan (up 17.99%) and a net profit of 785 million yuan (up 6.66%) for the first three quarters of 2024. The third quarter alone saw revenues of 4.967 billion yuan (up 12.88%) [5] - The report projects a decrease in profit forecasts due to pressure on internal sales, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 revised to 1.049 billion yuan, 1.204 billion yuan, and 1.332 billion yuan respectively [5] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: Revenue 13.696 billion yuan, Net Profit 961 million yuan - 2023A: Revenue 14.647 billion yuan, Net Profit 977 million yuan - 2024E: Revenue 16.781 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.049 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue 18.516 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.204 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue 20.368 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.332 billion yuan [4] - Profitability Ratios: - Gross Margin: 21.1% (2022A), 22.7% (2023A), 21.8% (2024E) - Net Margin: 7.0% (2022A), 6.7% (2023A), 6.2% (2024E) [4][7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 1.18 yuan, 2023A: 1.19 yuan, 2024E: 1.28 yuan, 2025E: 1.47 yuan, 2026E: 1.63 yuan [4] Sales Performance - In Q3 2024, internal sales reached 4.2 billion yuan (up 20%), while external sales were 780 million yuan (down 15%). The overall demand for internal sales remains under pressure [6] - The report highlights that the overall export value of small household appliances increased by 12% in Q3 2024, maintaining the previous quarter's performance [6] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024 was 21.92%, 21.63%, and 20.87% respectively, indicating a decline primarily due to structural changes and increased competition in the domestic market [7] - The report notes that the decline in gross margin is also influenced by exchange rate fluctuations and competitive pressures in the domestic market [7]