泸州老窖：Q3业绩符合预期，经营扎实韧性强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, demonstrating solid operational resilience with a revenue of 24.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.59 billion RMB, up 9.7% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on digital marketing reforms and enhancing brand exposure through interactive marketing strategies, which are expected to support growth during economic pressures [5]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in industry demand, leading to adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with expected growth rates of 9.3% and 12.2% respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Q3 revenue reached 7.4 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 3.57 billion RMB, up 2.6% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 slightly decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 88.1%, attributed to increased promotional spending and higher product engagement [5]. - The company reported a net profit margin increase of 0.9 percentage points to 48.2%, driven by operational efficiency improvements [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 33.1 billion RMB, 35.8 billion RMB, and 39.7 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 9.5%, 8.2%, and 10.8% respectively [8]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 14.57 billion RMB, 15.93 billion RMB, and 17.87 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 10.0%, 9.3%, and 12.2% [8]. - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) of 9.90 RMB, 10.82 RMB, and 12.14 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][8]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.8, 12.6, and 11.3 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [6].