CBC(SH:600132) EBSCN·2024-10-31 03:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer [4] Core Views - The company experienced a slowdown in structural upgrades, leading to short-term performance pressure, with a slight increase in revenue but a decline in net profit [1][4] - Q3 2024 saw a significant drop in both sales volume and average selling price, attributed to weak demand and slow recovery in on-premise consumption [2][3] - The company's gross margin decreased due to increased depreciation expenses from the new Foshan factory, impacting overall profitability [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Chongqing Beer reported revenue of 13.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and a net profit of 1.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 4.2 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, with net profit at 430 million yuan, down 10.1% [1] Sales and Product Structure - Q3 2024 beer sales volume was 873,200 kiloliters, a decrease of 5.6%, with an average selling price of approximately 4,813 yuan per ton, down 1.6% [2] - High-end and mainstream product revenues fell by 9.2% and 7.6% respectively, while economic product revenue grew by 20.0% [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margins for the first three quarters and Q3 2024 were 49.2% and 49.17%, respectively, with Q3 showing a notable decline due to increased depreciation from the new factory [3] - The sales expense ratio was 15.07% for the first three quarters and 14.74% for Q3, reflecting improved efficiency in expense management [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 1.318 billion, 1.399 billion, and 1.481 billion yuan, representing a reduction of 7%, 8%, and 7% respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 are projected at 2.72, 2.89, and 3.06 yuan, with P/E ratios of 22x, 20x, and 19x [4]