JGJC(000799) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-10-31 03:43Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" [3][6]. Core Views - The company's performance remains under pressure, with significant declines in revenue and net profit, indicating that the effects of reforms and cultivation efforts have yet to materialize [4][5]. - The report highlights a 44.4% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the third quarter, with a net profit drop of 88.2%, leading to a loss of 0.6 billion yuan in Q3 [4][6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its channel value chain and transforming its marketing model to improve sales performance [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.0 billion yuan, down 67.2% year-on-year, and a net loss of 0.6 billion yuan [4]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 42.2 percentage points to -32.8%, with a gross margin of 64.0% [5]. - The company is facing challenges due to weak sales during the holiday season and increased fixed costs impacting net profit [5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a significant decline in net profit for 2024-2026, with expected decreases of 89.3%, 68%, and 61% respectively [6]. - Revenue is projected to decline by 51.0% in 2024, followed by modest growth of 10.7% and 10.0% in 2025 and 2026 [6]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.18, 0.46, and 0.65 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 285.9, 112.5, and 79.4 [6].