LFX(600612) 民生证券·2024-10-31 03:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by high gold prices, leading to a decline in terminal consumption and a year-on-year drop in profits [2][3] - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was RMB 52.582 billion, down 15.28% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 1.776 billion, down 9.60% YoY [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 12.623 billion, down 41.89% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 372 million, down 46.20% YoY [3] - The company's gross margin narrowed and expense ratios increased in Q3 2024, leading to a decline in net profit margin [3] - The company's product craftsmanship, channel expansion, and brand potential continue to improve, with a "five-in-one" marketing model and a deep marketing network [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 62.851 billion, RMB 68.073 billion, and RMB 73.315 billion in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of -12.0%, +8.3%, and +7.7%, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was RMB 71.436 billion, with a growth rate of 13.4%, and is expected to decline by 12.0% in 2024 [4][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was RMB 2.214 billion, with a growth rate of 30.2%, and is expected to decline by 8.7% in 2024 [4][6] - The company's EPS in 2023 was RMB 4.23, and is expected to be RMB 3.86 in 2024 [4][6] - The company's PE ratio in 2023 was 12, and is expected to be 13 in 2024 [4][6] - The company's PB ratio in 2023 was 2.3, and is expected to be 2.1 in 2024 [4][6] Industry Overview - In Q1-Q3 2024, national gold consumption was 741.73 tons, down 11.18% YoY, with gold jewelry consumption at 400.04 tons, down 27.53% YoY [3] - Gold bar and coin consumption in Q1-Q3 2024 was 282.72 tons, up 27.14% YoY, driven by the rapid development of e-commerce models such as live streaming and instant retail [3] - In Q3 2024, gold prices remained high and volatile, leading to a decline in physical gold consumption, while gold bar and coin consumption continued to grow significantly [3] Product and Channel Strategy - The company's "gold and silver fine workmanship" is exquisite, with product design showcasing "unique craftsmanship" [3] - The company employs a "five-in-one" marketing model, with a deep marketing network layout, focusing on self-operated silver buildings, joint ventures, general distributors, dealers, and specialty stores [3] - The company leverages its "century-old golden brand" to continuously enhance brand potential, with a complete industrial chain from source procurement to design, production, and sales [3]