千禾味业：渠道调整优化，期待效果显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 352 million RMB, down 9.19% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on the zero-additive segment of the condiment industry, expecting to benefit from the increasing penetration of zero-additive products despite facing challenges such as weak dining demand and intensified competition [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 699 million RMB, a decline of 12.63% year-on-year, and a net profit of 101 million RMB, down 22.58% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from soy sauce, vinegar, and other businesses in Q3 2024 was 430 million RMB, 84 million RMB, and 136 million RMB, reflecting year-on-year changes of 13.8%, -15.6%, and -30.3% respectively [1] - The company reduced the number of distributors by 136 in Q3, impacting revenue significantly in the central and western regions [1] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 37.54%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in raw material prices and price optimization [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.45%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year [1] Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects a decrease in earnings for 2024-2026, with net profits expected to be 520 million RMB, 590 million RMB, and 670 million RMB, reflecting year-on-year changes of -1%, +12%, and +14% respectively [2] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for these years are projected to be 24x, 22x, and 19x [2] Market Positioning - The company is strategically adjusting its operations to enhance its market position in the zero-additive segment, aiming for growth post-channel adjustments [1]