LZLJ(SZ:000568) Haitong Securities·2024-10-31 04:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company reported a total operating revenue of 24.304 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 11.593 billion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 7.399 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.566 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on inventory digestion through controlled pricing strategies and enhancing marketing efforts to increase consumer engagement [4]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.52 percentage points year-on-year to 88.1%, attributed to a higher proportion of mid-range products [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow showed strong performance, increasing by 24.5% year-on-year to 4.240 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 30.233 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.918 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9% [6]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 13.246 billion yuan in 2023 to 14.418 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 9.80 yuan in 2024, 11.01 yuan in 2025, and 12.25 yuan in 2026 [5][8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 88.3% in 2023 to 88.4% in 2024 [8]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20-25x for 2024, leading to a fair value range of 195.90 to 244.88 yuan per share [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of effective cost control, with a decrease in the expense ratio to 14.6% in Q3 2024, down 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [5].