Binjiang Group(002244) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 06:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Views - The company is facing pressure on revenue and profit, with a decline in turnover scale and gross profit margin. However, it has improved its sales ranking and secured quality land reserves in Hangzhou, maintaining smooth financing channels. The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 30.8 billion, 38.3 billion, and 44.1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 0.99, 1.23, and 1.42 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 9.8, 7.9, and 6.8 times [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 407.8 billion yuan, down 12.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.3 billion yuan, down 33.9% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit decreased by 14.4% and 44.1%, respectively. The operating cash flow was negative at -14.1 billion yuan, a decline of 105% year-on-year. The gross margin and net margin were 10.43% and 4.34%, down 4.56 percentage points and 1.98 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. Sales and Market Position - The company ranked eighth in sales within the industry, with a sales amount of 801.3 billion yuan from January to September, a decrease of 34.4% year-on-year. It secured 14 land parcels in Hangzhou from January to October, with a total investment of 29.6 billion yuan and an average land price of 25,448 yuan per square meter. As of mid-year, the total land reserve was 12.9 million square meters, with 66% located in Hangzhou [6][7]. Financing and Debt Structure - The company raised 5.4 billion yuan through public market bond financing in the first three quarters, with a coupon rate of 3.55%-3.90%. As of mid-year, the total interest-bearing debt was 39.868 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.65 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. The debt structure shows a bank loan ratio of 79.5% and a direct financing ratio of 20.5%. The cash-to-short-term debt ratio is 2.46 times, and the overall financing cost has decreased to 3.7%, down 50 basis points from the end of 2023 [7].