AHHL(SH:600761) Southwest Securities·2024-10-31 06:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anhui Heli (600761) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 13.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.1 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year. However, the third quarter saw a revenue decline of 0.1% year-on-year and a net profit decrease of 9.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in domestic demand [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 21.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin for Q3 was 7.3%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 21.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in the sales proportion of electric forklifts and low raw material prices [2] Market Dynamics - The domestic forklift demand has declined in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% in domestic sales, while exports grew by 20.4%. The overall growth rate for the first three quarters was 10.8% [3] - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, with the establishment of subsidiaries in Oceania and South America, and plans to set up a European headquarters and a research center in Germany [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 1.43 billion, 1.64 billion, and 1.85 billion yuan, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.2% over the next three years [3][4]