Shanghai Jahwa(600315) 民生证券·2024-10-31 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shanghai Jahwa (600315 SH) [2][4] Core Views - Shanghai Jahwa is undergoing strategic transformation, with short-term profitability pressure but long-term growth potential [2] - The company completed core talent iteration in Q3 2024, improving operational quality [2] - Organizational restructuring has been implemented, with five front-end business unit general managers appointed by Q3 2024 [2] - Brand building efforts are showing results, with multiple brands achieving significant exposure and growth [2] - Online channel reform during Double 11 shopping festival demonstrated initial success [2] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 24Q1-3 revenue reached 4 477 billion yuan, down 12 07% YoY [2] - 24Q1-3 net profit attributable to parent company was 163 million yuan, down 58 72% YoY [2] - 24Q3 revenue was 1 156 billion yuan, down 20 93% YoY [2] - 24Q3 net profit attributable to parent company was -75 million yuan, down 180 85% YoY [2] Profitability Indicators - 24Q1-3 gross margin was 59 41%, down 0 11 pct YoY [2] - 24Q3 gross margin was 54 49%, down 3 24 pct YoY [2] - 24Q1-3 sales expense ratio was 45 12%, up 1 69 pct YoY [2] - 24Q3 sales expense ratio was 50 03%, up 6 83 pct YoY [2] Organizational Restructuring - Implemented flat management structure with front, middle, and back offices [2] - Established five front-end business units covering cosmetics, personal care, innovation, overseas, and offline sales [2] - Completed rotation and new talent introduction in middle and back offices by Q3 2024 [2] Brand Performance Six God - Focused on young consumer products like Cool Egg [2] - Third Cool Festival in July achieved over 400 million exposures and 5 75 million interactions [2] - New fans increased by 10% YoY [2] Herborist - Strengthened medical research cooperation with top hospitals [2] - Developed products for dry sensitive and oily sensitive skin [2] Dr Yu - Collaborated with new generation celebrities for brand rejuvenation [2] - Exclusive sponsorship of Tan Jianci's concert in August [2] - Achieved GMV of 20 million yuan during Tmall Super Brand Day [2] Maxam - Operated own IP "Old Baby" [2] - Collaborated with Wang Lin and Fan Huohuo in live streaming [2] - Gained nearly 200 000 new fans by Q3 2024 [2] Financial Forecast Revenue - 2024E revenue forecast at 7 083 billion yuan, up 7 4% YoY [3] - 2025E revenue forecast at 7 587 billion yuan, up 7 1% YoY [3] - 2026E revenue forecast at 8 385 billion yuan, up 10 5% YoY [3] Net Profit - 2024E net profit forecast at 272 million yuan, down 45 5% YoY [3] - 2025E net profit forecast at 393 million yuan, up 44 3% YoY [3] - 2026E net profit forecast at 493 million yuan, up 25 5% YoY [3] Valuation - 2024E PE at 41X [3] - 2025E PE at 28X [3] - 2026E PE at 23X [3]