King's Luck(603369) 民生证券·2024-10-31 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 43.94 yuan [3][5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 9.94 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [2] - The company's product structure continues to improve, with the Suzhong and out-of-province markets expanding rapidly [2] - The company's core product, Guoyuan Sikai, is positioned in the mainstream consumption price range and is growing rapidly, while other products such as Duikai, Danya, and Diancang are also performing well [2] - The company launched a new high-end product, Guoyuan 2049, in October, targeting the 1,000 yuan price range [2] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 74.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 31.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 11.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.7% [4] - The company's revenue for 2025 is expected to be 13.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.4% [4] - The company's revenue for 2026 is expected to be 14.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.7%, and net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6% [4] - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 78.19%, a slight decrease from 78.34% in 2023, while the net profit margin is expected to be 30.67%, a slight decrease from 31.06% in 2023 [7] - The company's total assets are expected to increase from 21.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.84 billion yuan in 2026, with a corresponding increase in shareholder equity from 13.29 billion yuan to 21.17 billion yuan [10] Market and Product Analysis - The company's revenue from the Suzhong region increased by 27.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, while revenue from out-of-province markets increased by 32.7% [2] - The company's revenue from wholesale and agency channels increased by 18.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, while revenue from direct sales (including group purchases) increased by 24.9% [2] - The company's revenue from high-end products (Te A+ and Te A) increased by 18.9% and 21.9% year-on-year, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2024, while revenue from lower-end products (B, C, and D) decreased [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's current P/E ratio is 15x for 2024, 14x for 2025, and 12x for 2026 [4] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 4.1x in 2023 to 2.6x in 2026 [4] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 12.44x in 2023 to 8.29x in 2026 [9]