五芳斋（603237）：2024年三季报点评：修炼内功，Q3月饼收入同增22%

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.048 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 15.20% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, down 12.80% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 467 million yuan, a decline of 15.04%, and a net loss of 23 million yuan [1] - The revenue from mooncakes in Q3 increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a strong performance in this product category [1] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 41.16%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 10.27%, up 0.28 percentage points [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company’s revenue from various product categories was as follows: zongzi 1.515 billion yuan (-19.42%), mooncakes 189 million yuan (+21.90%), meals 100 million yuan (-11.63%), and other products 192 million yuan (-11.67%) [1] - The revenue breakdown by sales channel for the first three quarters was: chain stores 264 million yuan (-11.96%), e-commerce 625 million yuan (-20.75%), supermarkets 248 million yuan (-8.60%), distributors 743 million yuan (-15.56%), and other channels 118 million yuan (-8.01%) [1] - The company’s revenue in its main market, East China, showed a narrowing decline in Q3, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.17% [1] - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 159 million yuan, 174 million yuan, and 181 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 20, and 19 [2][3]