TECON(002100) Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-31 06:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 13.087 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 566 million yuan, a significant increase of 212% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.094 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year but up 21% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 289 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 606% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30% [1]. - The company is expected to achieve both volume and quality growth, with significant cost improvements and a steady increase in output [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company’s pig output was approximately 743,000 heads, a decrease of 1% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter, with an estimated weighted average price of 18.2 yuan/kg, up 18% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The estimated cost for Q3 2024 has decreased to around 14.3 yuan/kg, down from 15.15 yuan/kg in Q2 2024, leading to an estimated operational profit of about 300 million yuan for the pig business [2]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 20.283 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11% to 19% from 2023 to 2025 [4]. Business Segments - The non-pig business remains robust, with animal health and feed being significant profit sources. The animal health business is expected to gain market competitiveness following the successful establishment of a vaccine project [3]. - In Q3 2024, feed sales reached approximately 690,000 tons, with exports accounting for about 450,000 tons and domestic sales for about 240,000 tons, although revenue is expected to decline due to falling raw material prices [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a pig output target of 350,000 to 400,000 heads next year, supported by improved production metrics and cost efficiencies [2]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024 to 952 million yuan, with EPS estimates of 0.70 yuan per share, reflecting a recovery from previous losses [4].