Baolong Automotive(SH:603197) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-31 06:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 38.79 yuan on October 30, 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20/14/10 for the years 2024-2026 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 18.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.75%, driven by strong sales from key clients, particularly Ideal Automotive, which delivered 152,800 vehicles, up 45.40% year-on-year [2]. - The company is experiencing robust growth in emerging businesses, particularly in the sensor and air suspension sectors, with significant new orders and project acquisitions [2]. - The approval of a convertible bond issuance of up to 1.39 billion yuan will support the expansion of the air suspension business, which has already seen a revenue increase of 44.48% year-on-year in H1 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 50.26 billion yuan, a 20.96% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.49 billion yuan, down 26.62% year-on-year [2]. - Q3 2024 net profit was 1.00 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.21% year-on-year, but an increase of 24.87% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 5.78% [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 71.1 billion yuan, 91.6 billion yuan, and 115.2 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 4.1 billion yuan, 6.1 billion yuan, and 7.8 billion yuan [2][3]. Business Segments - The sensor business reported revenue of 3.10 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 51.71%, while the air suspension business generated 4.24 billion yuan, a 44.48% increase [2]. - As of October 2024, the company has secured over 65.29 billion yuan in new orders for sensors and over 216.7 billion yuan for air suspension systems [2].